A McFlorida Win

John McCain wins Florida and all the state's delegates, putting him in the lead both in polling and delegate count. This is what the McCain camp needed. And Rudy's Florida or bust strategy pushes him to withdraw.

29% of Florida's GOP Primary voters were Catholic. 37% of those who go to Mass on a weekly basis voted for McCain, 31% for Romney and 22% for Giuliani. McCain won over even more Catholics who go to Mass less often -- 41% compared to 26% for Mitt and 23% for Rudy. So McCain has a 6% lead on active Catholic GOP voter.

Diving into the exit polls reveals an interesting point of those who believe abortion should be legal --McCain won 48% of those who think abortion should always be legal, compared to 26 for Rudy and 20 for Romney. McCain continues to win this pro-abortion voter with 41% of those who think abortion should be "mostly legal". I assume these voters only oppose partial birth abortions.

With all his claim to pro-life credentials why is McCain losing among pro-lifers? Those who say abortion should always be or at least mostly illegal (this was 52% of those who voted) 35% went to Romney while McCain got 29%. Romney has a 6% lead among pro-lifers.

Curious and curiouser...

What happens to Rudy's supporters and even Mike Huckabee's? Rudy is to set to announce his withdrawal today. Huckabee says he stays in but I don't think he has any money to survive, but we shall see. Some pundits have talked about Rudy's supporters, in spite of Rudy's endorsement of McCain, going more heavily to Romney but that remains to be seen. According to exit polls the Giuliani voter and the Huckabee voter seems to split their second choice evenly between McCain and Romney. So McCain pulls into the lead but Romney is still in the game.

Next Tuesday, Super Tuesday, will tell us more but once again it seems to be a race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

- Data from CNN Exit Polls

Quick Recap of the primary and the Catholic vote:

Iowa - Huckabee wins, but Romney wins Catholic vote
Wyoming - Romney wins, no data on Catholic vote available
New Hampshire - McCain wins, he and Romney split Catholic vote (38% of voters are Catholic)
Michigan - Romney wins, and wins Catholic vote (29% are Catholic)
Nevada - Romney wins, and wins Catholic vote (18% Catholic)
South Carolina - McCain wins, and wins Catholic vote (13% Catholic)
Florida - McCain wins, and wins Catholic vote (29% Catholic)

The Catholic vote trends with the victorious candidate, which will be much more important in the general election. Clearly those who did not do well among Catholics (Huckabee and Giuliani) are now exiting or considering exiting the race.

Our Founding Freedom

The United States of America holds a unique place in the world and not because of our military or economic might, not even because we control a diverse ocean to ocean land mass. America is unique and special because of our founding and the principles that brought us into being. In the midst of the primary season and bitter political campaigns it is good to be reminded of this. We ought to stop and reflect on how we are insuring that our rich heritage is not only remembered in history books but is alive in our culture.

The Founding Fathers of the United States asserted their claim to freedom and independence on the basis of certain "self-evident" truths about the human person: truths which could be discerned in human nature, built into it by "nature's God". Thus they meant to bring into being, not just an independent territory, but a great experiment in what George Washington called "ordered liberty:" an experiment in which men and women would enjoy equality of rights and opportunities in the pursuit of happiness and in service to the common good. Reading the founding documents of the United States, one has to be impressed by the concept of freedom they enshrine: a freedom designed to enable people to fulfill their duties and responsibilities towards the family and towards the common good of the community. Their authors clearly understood that there could be no true freedom without moral responsibility and accountability, and no happiness without respect and support for the natural units or groupings through which people exist, develop and seek the higher purposes of life in concert with others.

The American democratic experiment has been successful in many ways. Millions of people around the world look to the United States as a model, in their search for freedom, dignity, and prosperity. But the continuing success of American democracy depends on the degree to which each new generation, native-born and immigrant, make its own the moral truths on which the Founding Fathers staked the future of your Republic. Their commitment to build a free society with liberty and justice for all must be constantly renewed if the United States is to fulfill the destiny to which the Founders pledged their "lives...fortunes...and sacred honor."

- Pope John Paul II Address to US Ambassador to the Vatican 1997

Thanks to Fr. Berg for reminding me of this quote in your email today.

NY Times Endorses McCain

Wow, I don't think any Republican candidate wants the endorsement of the New York Times. I imagine his campaign is cringing right now.

Still, there is a choice to be made, and it is an easy one. Senator John McCain of Arizona...We have shuddered at Mr. McCain’s occasional, tactical pander to the right because he has demonstrated that he has the character to stand on principle. He was an early advocate for battling global warming and risked his presidential bid to uphold fundamental American values in the immigration debate...That doesn’t make him a moderate, but it makes him the best choice for the party’s presidential nomination. - NY Times

I wonder if the Times is using the fact that they are loathed by GOP Primary voters to stir the pot and the GOP primary battle going since McCain is in the lead. I wouldn't put it past them... however they do state their real reasons of supporting McCain over the others.

Ron Paul on Life

It has been pointed out by a Ron Paul supporter that he was left off my list discussing the life issue. My only reasoning was that Paul currently and consistently polls around 4% nationally. (RCP) But to be fair here is a look at his record on life.

Paul is pro-life, he received most recently an 80% pro-life voting record from National Right to Life. I have heard about how pro-life Ron Paul was and never gave it much thought. Then I decided to do my own research. I noticed that in the 2005-2006 session of Congress he received a 55% pro-life voting record, which confused me. So I dug into his actual votes.

As a congressman Ron Paul voted against the Unborn Victims of Violence Act, as well as a parental notification law, and voted to amend this parental notification law - a tactic designed by Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) to kill the bill. He also voted against the total ban on human cloning and only begrudgingly voted to ban partial birth abortion. The list of anti-life votes goes on (see a complete list here) . He also opposes the Human Life Amendment! So how or why does a staunch pro-lifer vote with the pro-abortion side on these issues important issues?

I assume his seemingly anti-life votes are all based on the belief that the federal government should not be protecting life in this way. I suspect that he believes it is properly decided by each state. If he believes abortion should be decided by state legislatures, why is he in Congress? And if elected to the Executive Branch of the Federal Government what will change on the issue of life? I am not sure, but we can tell from his voting record he will not support something that is pro-life unless it meet his standard of separation of state versus federal legislation. It seems to me that he is willing to sacrifice unborn lives on the altar of state's rights.

Judges - He says all the right things with regards to judges but again so have the others.

Pro-life leadership - He is an OB and can tell the great story of life as a doctor. But what does that translate to? What will he do for life? Again politics must be based on right principles but there must be a practical reality. He will continue the ban on overseas funding of abortion and with the federal military and, minus Giuliani, I think all the GOP candidates will continue this policy. He is adamant that the federal government should never over step states rights and according to him abortion ought to be solely decided by the states. So as president he would tie his own hands and may even veto pro-life legislation that he thinks the fed shouldn't legislate on. I do not understand how this would make him a pro-life president, if he would not use the force of his office to protect innocent human life.

When speaking of abortion and judicial appointments on his campaign site he states,

"The notion that an all-powerful, centralized state should provide monolithic solutions to the ethical dilemmas of our times is not only misguided, but also contrary to our Constitution." (Federalizing Social Policy)

Conclusion- I agree with Ron Paul that the federal government has overstepped its bounds in many areas, but the most basic right, the right to life, deserves the full protection of the federal government.

- You can view all of Paul's key pro-life votes from National Right to Life

The Life Issue

Governments were established to preserve life. I thought it would be fitting to comment on the presidential candidates stance on life today the 35th anniversary of Roe v Wade.

First the Catholic Church states very clearly that life is the most important issue when considering a candidate, not one of many issues. Life is the issue.

Second supporting a culture of life ought to be seen in three different levels: record and rhetoric on life, judicial appointment philosophy, and leadership needed to get results.

Now that Thompson has dropped out of the race the field is leaner. If his supporters gravitate to one candidate this could be a turning point in the primary.

McCain - opposes abortion and has for many years (75% voting record from the National Right to Life), however he supports funding embryonic stem cell research, crafted campaign finance bill that damaged pro-life movement, and filed a friend of court brief against Wisconsin Right to Life, seeMcCain versus Wisconsin Right to Life. See also National Right to Life on McCain (2000), to be fair to McCain here is a defense of his pro-life record by Gerry Bradley.

Romney - opposes abortion and embryonic stem cell research. The greatest problem with Romney is that he has changed from being "pro-choice" to pro-life more recently. He clearly campaigned as a "pro-choicer" in his campaigns but his action seems to be decidedly pro-life. The first life issue to cross his desk caused him to veto funding for embryonic stem cell, and then again he vetoed an over the counter contraception bill. To be sure he did stop the advancement of evil while also expand abstinence funding. Each time he vetoed a bill he went right to the people with an op-ed explaining his rationale and reasoning. Not bad in such a liberal state. Far from perfect but not bad either.

Huckabee - opposes abortion and embryonic stem research. As governor he championed the passage of a number of pro-life laws. I think his pro-life record is quite impressive. See on the issues.

Giuliani - was pro-abortion, is pro-abortion, and promises to be pro-abortion in the future. His words and his record show him to fully support abortion and embryonic stem cell research.

Judges? I find all of the candidates saying similar things when it comes to the appointment of judges, even Giuliani. But obviously those who support abortion on-demand such as Giuliani can not be equally trusted.

Then comes the pro-life leadership question which I think goes clearly first to Huckabee then Romney. McCain has fought the Right to Life and pro-life leaders such as Santorum behind the scenes leaving me very concerned with his "leadership" on this issue, not to mention his role in the gang of 14 holding up judges.

Huckabee and Romney are clearly out in front on the issue of life in the race for president. Now there must be a more thorough look at both of these candidates on the other issues, and then what support for them means in light of the current landscape.

Who is most likely to achieve the most good? Politics is not a theoretical game but a practical reality.

Catholic Voters in early primaries

Iowa - I am amazed at how many have blogged on how Huckabee lost the Catholic vote in Iowa, has a Catholic problem etc. etc. Some interesting maps and county vote counts compared to Catholic rich areas. (Matthew Yglesias, Inside Catholic, PolySigh and more). Essentially Romney picked up the Catholic rich counties and Huckabee lost them. No question was asked about religion for Iowa.

New Hampshire - Catholics were 38% of NH GOP primary vote. 39% of Catholic GOP went to McCain and 39% for Romney. Interestingly Hillary did get 44% of Catholic DEM vote compared to 27% for Obama. 35% of Dem Primary voters were Catholic.

Michigan - Catholics comprised 29% of GOP voters with 38% going for Romney and 36% to McCain. Of the Catholics who go to Mass weekly Romney got 41% with McCain remaining at 36%.

Looking ahead South Carolina, with a small Catholic vote around 10%, Southern Evangelicals supposedly determine this vote. McCain leads at 28% with Huckabee trailing by 4 pts. Nevada with 25% Catholic vote has Romney leading with a 5 point lead over his nearest rival McCain. Florida, usually with at least 28% of their voters being Catholic, latest polling showing McCain (20), Giuliani(21), and Romney (20).

Then come the big states: California, with 28% Catholic vote, has McCain at 25%, Romney 15, Giuliani 14, and Huckabee 13. New Jersey, with 44% Catholic vote, has Giuliani leading with 28% followed by McCain by 25%.

If currently polling remain it looks like Giuliani can only survive if he wins Florida but even then he will be in third behind McCain and Romney. Huckabee looks like he is coming in second in South Carolina which may be the end of his swing. He will remain in but without this win he can't raise money and climb in the polls.

The race as of this moment is between McCain and Romney. Nevada will go to Romney and it appears SC to McCain. Florida will be a big bump for either of them which Catholics will have a big role. Then on to other Catholic rich states.

Conclusion, Catholics will choose the primary nominee.

- Exit polling data from CNN

The Catholic Vote

Since I have spent a couple of years working with campaigns and coalitions, particularly connecting with Catholics I thought it would be worth exploring the Catholic vote in 2008.

Here is some background on the Catholic vote. When you look at the election exit polling you find the Catholic vote going back and forth between both political parties -- essentially trending to support the winner. This often leaves pundits to say there is no such thing as "the Catholic vote". This is true of those who simply identify themselves as Catholic, they are often reflecting the prevailing cultural or political opinion of the day.

However further research revealed a tangible group - those Catholic who not only self-identify as Catholics but those who are active Mass attending Catholics. This is when you begin to see patterns and shifts and a real group emerges. This constituency has been rightly termed the Catholic vote. This is a group who views the world with a similar lens based on a shared cultural, values based identity.

According to press and pundits the Catholic vote helped define many elections and I believe both parties recognize this will be the key constituency for 2008.