Catholic Voters in early primaries

Iowa - I am amazed at how many have blogged on how Huckabee lost the Catholic vote in Iowa, has a Catholic problem etc. etc. Some interesting maps and county vote counts compared to Catholic rich areas. (Matthew Yglesias, Inside Catholic, PolySigh and more). Essentially Romney picked up the Catholic rich counties and Huckabee lost them. No question was asked about religion for Iowa.

New Hampshire - Catholics were 38% of NH GOP primary vote. 39% of Catholic GOP went to McCain and 39% for Romney. Interestingly Hillary did get 44% of Catholic DEM vote compared to 27% for Obama. 35% of Dem Primary voters were Catholic.

Michigan - Catholics comprised 29% of GOP voters with 38% going for Romney and 36% to McCain. Of the Catholics who go to Mass weekly Romney got 41% with McCain remaining at 36%.

Looking ahead South Carolina, with a small Catholic vote around 10%, Southern Evangelicals supposedly determine this vote. McCain leads at 28% with Huckabee trailing by 4 pts. Nevada with 25% Catholic vote has Romney leading with a 5 point lead over his nearest rival McCain. Florida, usually with at least 28% of their voters being Catholic, latest polling showing McCain (20), Giuliani(21), and Romney (20).

Then come the big states: California, with 28% Catholic vote, has McCain at 25%, Romney 15, Giuliani 14, and Huckabee 13. New Jersey, with 44% Catholic vote, has Giuliani leading with 28% followed by McCain by 25%.

If currently polling remain it looks like Giuliani can only survive if he wins Florida but even then he will be in third behind McCain and Romney. Huckabee looks like he is coming in second in South Carolina which may be the end of his swing. He will remain in but without this win he can't raise money and climb in the polls.

The race as of this moment is between McCain and Romney. Nevada will go to Romney and it appears SC to McCain. Florida will be a big bump for either of them which Catholics will have a big role. Then on to other Catholic rich states.

Conclusion, Catholics will choose the primary nominee.

- Exit polling data from CNN