A McFlorida Win

John McCain wins Florida and all the state's delegates, putting him in the lead both in polling and delegate count. This is what the McCain camp needed. And Rudy's Florida or bust strategy pushes him to withdraw.

29% of Florida's GOP Primary voters were Catholic. 37% of those who go to Mass on a weekly basis voted for McCain, 31% for Romney and 22% for Giuliani. McCain won over even more Catholics who go to Mass less often -- 41% compared to 26% for Mitt and 23% for Rudy. So McCain has a 6% lead on active Catholic GOP voter.

Diving into the exit polls reveals an interesting point of those who believe abortion should be legal --McCain won 48% of those who think abortion should always be legal, compared to 26 for Rudy and 20 for Romney. McCain continues to win this pro-abortion voter with 41% of those who think abortion should be "mostly legal". I assume these voters only oppose partial birth abortions.

With all his claim to pro-life credentials why is McCain losing among pro-lifers? Those who say abortion should always be or at least mostly illegal (this was 52% of those who voted) 35% went to Romney while McCain got 29%. Romney has a 6% lead among pro-lifers.

Curious and curiouser...

What happens to Rudy's supporters and even Mike Huckabee's? Rudy is to set to announce his withdrawal today. Huckabee says he stays in but I don't think he has any money to survive, but we shall see. Some pundits have talked about Rudy's supporters, in spite of Rudy's endorsement of McCain, going more heavily to Romney but that remains to be seen. According to exit polls the Giuliani voter and the Huckabee voter seems to split their second choice evenly between McCain and Romney. So McCain pulls into the lead but Romney is still in the game.

Next Tuesday, Super Tuesday, will tell us more but once again it seems to be a race between John McCain and Mitt Romney.

- Data from CNN Exit Polls

Quick Recap of the primary and the Catholic vote:

Iowa - Huckabee wins, but Romney wins Catholic vote
Wyoming - Romney wins, no data on Catholic vote available
New Hampshire - McCain wins, he and Romney split Catholic vote (38% of voters are Catholic)
Michigan - Romney wins, and wins Catholic vote (29% are Catholic)
Nevada - Romney wins, and wins Catholic vote (18% Catholic)
South Carolina - McCain wins, and wins Catholic vote (13% Catholic)
Florida - McCain wins, and wins Catholic vote (29% Catholic)

The Catholic vote trends with the victorious candidate, which will be much more important in the general election. Clearly those who did not do well among Catholics (Huckabee and Giuliani) are now exiting or considering exiting the race.