What does New Hampshire mean?

This will be a long primary season for both parties.

John McCain and Hillary Clinton won their party's primary tonight in NH.

Hillary is back in the game but because it was a narrow victory she does not reclaim her title of the sole front runner - this will be a two person race for a while. Dick Morris now thinks this victory is decisive for her since she took a lot of pounding in the past weeks, but I am not so sure. I think Obama will keeps it competitive even though he now will get more scrutiny from the media. Edwards will continue to get 15-18% of the vote but won't get more than this.

On the Republican side the primary it is wide open.

Huckabee made a very good showing in NH which keeps him very much alive, which is contrary to many pundits pre-Iowa. But he will need to keep this up as the scrutiny of his campaign continues.

Romney coming in second in both IA and NH keeps him in the front, but the heat is on for him to get a win. "Negative" campaigning may have influenced this second place in NH. (Note: Romney has won the most delegates overall.)

Giuliani continues to lose in these early primaries. His strategy seems to be ignore smaller states to focus on Florida which is made up ex-New Yorkers, where he is currently polling in front. This once front runner is now looking very vulnerable even though he does well in larger states.

McCain's victory in NH is what he needed. To be honest I agreed with many of the pundits in the fall that said McCain was no longer viable. NH was ripe for McCain and he has made an effort to reach out to Independents making the difference. McCain got a greater number of Independent voters than Obama, which was contrary to the expectation. This helped sure up his win tonight.

Next Tuesday is the Michigan Primary and the following Saturday will be the Nevada Caucus and the Republican South Carolina Primary. This will be non-stop through January right into Super Tuesday Feb 5th. Hold on this will be a bumpy ride and there will be more shifts in the GOP front runners.

This puts the GOP front runners as Huckabee (21), McCain (19.7), Giuliani (17.7), Romney (13.7), and Thompson (10.7). It is wide open for any of these guys. This is the average polling from Real Clear Politics.

Huckabee - won Iowa 3rd in NH and is polling out in front in SC, while holding tight to second place in MI and FL

McCain - won NH, polling third in MI and a distant second in SC but tonight's win could increase his chances

Giuliani - no wins or places yet but leading in FL and is tied with Romney in NV

Romney - second in both Iowa and NH, polling first in MI, tied for first in NV, but third in both SC and FL

Thompson - no wins and in fourth or fifth place in all of these early states

A lot can happen in the primary and I wouldn't count anyone out just yet. But by Feb 5th there will be a clear front runner.